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The Guardian12 February 2026
UK GDP: Q4 2025 growth 0.1%; Reeves predicts stronger 2026
88
Usefulness score
Highly UK‑focused and recognisable ONS GDP release with BoE and Chancellor commentary, providing concrete data and clear policy links for exam application.
Summary
ONS data show UK GDP rose just 0.1% in Q4 2025 and 1.3% across 2025, undershooting forecasts. Services saw no growth, production rose 1.2%, and construction fell 2.1% (worst in four years), with weak consumer spending and falling business investment leaving little momentum into 2026. The Bank of England signalled possible rate cuts in the next meetings, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves said growth should be stronger in 2026.
Application
How to use this in an exam answer.
Use as a current UK macro example when explaining slow economic growth and AD–AS, citing Q4 +0.1% and 2025 +1.3% with sectoral detail (services flat, construction −2.1%). Apply to determinants of aggregate demand: weaker investment and softer consumption dragging growth, and assess how a BoE rate cut could stimulate borrowing, spending and investment. Reference policy uncertainty around the Budget as a factor weighing on business confidence and investment.
Evaluation
How to critically assess it.
Quarterly GDP is volatile and subject to revision; one‑offs (e.g. Jaguar Land Rover shutdown) and weather‑sensitive construction make Q4 an imperfect guide to the underlying trend. Although Q4 was weak, the UK was reportedly the fastest‑growing European G7 economy in 2025, and imminent monetary/fiscal changes could shift the outlook. As a live‑blog, it collates opinions; some claims (e.g. on incomes) should be cross‑checked with ONS series before using in exams.